/ Publications / Scientific Journals
Natural Resources, 2001, No.2

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PRIRODNYE RESURSY (Natural Resources)Published by The National Academy of Sciences of Belarus & The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Protection of the Republic of Belarus, Minsk, Belarus
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Number 2; 2001
CONTENTS
Murashko M. G. Usenko V. S., Cherepansky M. M.
Main Results of Scientific Activity of CRICUWR Over Forty-Year Period. pp. 3--14
Summary: Central Research Institute for complex use of water resources (CRICUWR) was founded in 1961. Short history of its development and main scientific achievements over forty-year period are given. New directions and tasks are formulated which are topical for the Republic of Belarus at present. The institute laid the foundation of the Unified State System of water assessment, State Water Cadastre on the section of water use which is still used in CIS countries now. Under the methodic guidance of the institute technical certification of reservoir, water regulations in irrigated farming is done. Theoretical and program-methodical fundamentals of water management balances for river catchments which are applied in basin scheme composition of complex use and water protection are formulated. Scientific fundamentals and effective technology of the rational use and groundwater protection from contamination using for working regime optimization of water inlet under ecological assessment of influence of anthropogenic activity on ground water quality are elaborated. The effective technology of wastewater treatment for heavy engineering industry plants, meat and milk production, textile manufacturing, effective structures for water checks, system of hydraulic automata for level control on reclamation tracts are developed by the institute. Also, chemical land reclamation method for soils in order to increase water permeability of heavy clay soils, crop capacity and getting ecologically clean agricultural production on contaminated areas are developed. As the Institute is subordinate now to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Protection the research activity of the institute is related to hydroecological and water protection problems.
The concept of water supply for the population and sectors of the national economy of the Republic of Belarus partly implemented through individual projects of State order and State Scientific Program "Nature use and Environment protection" is elaborated by the institute.
Along with the development of traditional research directions the Institute plans to study new problems that are of great importance for the republic now.
Vojtov I. V., Novak V. A.
Present-Day Strategy of Water Resources Use and Protection in Belarus. pp. 15--20
Summary: The article deals with the strategic tendencies and approaches in water resources use and protection that have not been fully developed yet. First of all, it is drainage basin administrative vertical management structure, closely related with three main directions in activities: drinking water supply for the population which corresponds to sanitary norms and regulations; maintenance and rehabilitation of water objects to the conditions of water protection requirements; giving water objects to users in accordance with above mentioned we propose the following structure of management. Belvodokanal - oblvodokanals are responsible for quality water supply for population (mainly, from ground water sources), and for the condition of wastewater discharged into water bodies. Within the Ministry of Natural Resources: committee on water economy - basin water economy organizations responsible for maintenance and rehabilitation of water sources, for industrial water supply (from surface sources) and issue of water use license. We show the trends and ways for development of economic mechanism of the proposed management structure operation with step-by-step transition to self-repayment. We also propose strategic ways for device water quality and quantity calculation, for development of such management elements as ecological audit, ecological certification, ecological insurance, solution of surface storm runoff treatment problems in cities and industrial centers, problems of treatment and utilizing of wastewater sediments in city treatment plants. The article shows that there are great possibilities for intensifying water factor: development of water transportation, hydraulic power engineering, recreation, agricultural production resistant to dry seasons and the ways for their realization through home and foreign investors.
Apatsky A. N., Kolobayev A. N., Skripnichenko L. N., Tishchikov G. M.
Principal Results of the Expeditionary Investigations of Water Quality of the Dnieper Basin. pp. 21--25
Summary: In October 2000 a special expeditionary investigation of water quality was conducted in the Dnieper basin. This research was carried out for the creation of information basis for the development and implementation of water protection measures in the Dnieper basin in addition to the existing system of regular observations. This work was done under the grant of the Canada Agency of International Development and the Center of international research development (Ottawa). During the expedition the level of water consumption was measured and water samples were taken from 23 points (11 of them are transborder). Hydrochemical and hydrobiological indices of water quality and ground sediment were determined, the content of radionuclides in fish and ground sediment and also the availability of harmful substances in fish tissue was measured. The results of this hydrochemical investigation of water quality of the Dnieper, the Pripyat and their tributaries correspond to the hydro biological results. As a rule, extremely dangerous sites are the same by hydrochemical and hydro biological pollution indices. It is the Svisloch below Minsk, the Dnieper below Mogilyov and Retchitsa, the Pripyat below Mozyr and the Sozh below Gomel. As a whole, the water quality of the Dnieper basin (during 2 weeks of expeditionary investigation) was determined as satisfactory. But some sites of heavy metals pollution and radionuclide contamination in ground sediments were detected. Hydrobiological indices of ground sediments are not satisfactory. That is why in other periods of the year the water quality in some places of the Dnieper, the Pripyat and its tributaries can deteriorate, especially in the presence of the intensive hydraulic process and in agricultural areas. Thus, the necessity of preventive water protection measures is beyond doubt. The existing points of observation of the water quality condition are not enough to estimate the transborder contamination. So, it is necessary to organize an additional observation post of border point; to arrange some joint (not only with the Ukraine, but also with Russia) expeditionary research; to compare the methods of water quality analysis used in different countries. Approximately, the rate of anthropogenic stress (main pollution indices specific for October 2000) in Russia and the Ukraine can be compared with that determined in the Republic of Belarus.
Kolobayev A. N.
State and Prospects of Water Cadastre Development. pp. 26--33
Summary: Brief historical information about the development of water cadastre is given. The existing water cadastre is described in detail, as well as the rate of its being automated. Some water-ecological tasks are determined (the informational service of which is accomplished by SWC). Some disadvantages of the cadastre are indicated. Some of them are the following: absence of the concerted efforts and means of measurement in different departments; comparatively high inaccuracy of the data on water and sewage quality; irregular measurements of the water quality and quantity in the most of the boundary. The ways to remove the existing defects of the water cadastre are offered: the organization of an additional observation post in boundary's point, elaboration of more effective methods of control of cadastre information, extension of published information, organization of automated exchange of cadastre information with other countries. Also, the dynamics of principal indices of SWC on river basins in the Republic is given.
Bogdanovich M., Rogunovich V.
Metrological Basis of Water Monitoring at Paid Water Use. pp. 34--38
Summary: In article the metrological characteristics was analyzed, an conditions of usage and possibility of existing methods of water discharge measuring in an pressure- and non-pressure flows was analyzed tacking into account a paid water use. The conclusion was made, that the majority of the most widespread methods can not be use in a water discharge measuring technique in open flow at paid water use because they have inaccuracy superior allowable. The large water discharges are collected from open flows and are thrown off in them. Therefore actual problem is the development of metrology bases of measuring of water discharges in open flows. The determinations of this problem will allow to reduce inaccuracy of hydraulic, ultrasonic, inductive methods intended for open flows. The laboratory of operating monitoring of the CRICUWR during many years has been working for the solutions of this problem. In the article the outcomes of these activities are presented: single-point method "velocity - area", the sensitive measuring technique of water discharges in an open flows, microcomputer flow- and velocity meter and sensitive flow-meter. The methods and equipment which designed in CRICUWR create a metrological and legislative base for paid water use.
Grinevich A. G., Lukoshko M. R., Skuratovich S. N., Petlitsky Y. Y.
Peculiarities of Transborder Transfer of Contaminating Substances in the River Catchments of the Republic of Belarus. pp. 39--43
Summary: Due to favorable climatic and physical-geographical conditions in general the territory of the Republic of Belarus is considered to possess rather sufficient quantity of water resources. The main water problems are connected with the quality of the river water. Transborder transfer of contaminants by river systems is especially dangerous both from the point of assessment of separate regions and water users role in polluting transborder rivers as well as general problems of interstate interest settling and solution of problems in the sphere of surface water use and protection. The analysis of the information regarding the possibility of transborder transfer was carried out for all the main rivers of Belarus. The calculation scheme that enables to assess the hydrochemical runoff for every indicator at the entry and outcrop of the territory of the country was developed for every river.
Several typical balance sites were described where the peculiarities of hydrochemical runoff formation on the most important elements were assessed.
Volchek A.
Synchrony in Fluctuations of River Flow in Belarus and its Estimation. pp. 44--48
Summary: The results of the investigations of river flow fluctuations in Belarus are given in the article. There are about 27 000 rivers in Belarus, while the stationary net for surface water monitoring includes 4 posts of the background rank and 123 posts of the regional rank. Under these conditions, in the first place it is necessary to investigate regularity of the formation of surface waters of large regions and improve methods of the territorial generalization of river flow.
Space correlation analysis of lasting fluctuations of river flow can serve not only as a means of quantitative analysis of its space variability but enables to solve several practical tasks as well. Spatial connection due to synchronic changes of meteorological elements on vast territories depends on the influence of large-scale atmosphere processes.
Determination of the effect of asynchrony by means of joint curves of provision of total chronological and equally provided rows of river flow value is the basis of the proposed technique. The ratio of asynchrony is used as a quantitative indication of the degree of river flow asynchrony. For homogeneous stationary fields the function of space asynchrony depends only on the distance and provision of river flow. Values of parameters for space asynchrony functions have been received from the data on annual and monthly average flow in Belarus with the observation during no less than 35 years.
The investigation results show statistically important spatial-temporal asynchrony of river flow in Belarus. The ratio of asynchrony depends on many factors and varies between 4...50 %.
Grechko A. M., Fedyaev A. A., Katsemba S. N., Zlebova A. Ye., Ilkevich D. G., Khomich V. S.
Estimation of Soil, Bottom and Natural Water Petroleum Contamination in the Republic of Belarus. pp. 49--52
Summary: Study experience of soil, bottom, underground and surface water contamination by petroleum at typical objects is summarized. Investigations were conducted in the former military base in Zyabrovka, Gomel district, Cobrin oil-base, two parts of the oil pipe-line "Druzhba" break. The main regularities of the lost oil-product migration in different geological, hydrogeological conditions are defined. Lateral displacement of oil-products from the sources of contamination happens mostly with surface and underground water and total area of their spreading can reach 60...80 ha. The maximum discovered total oil-product content of soil averages 82,6 g/kg of dry bottom and of rocks - 58,0 g/kg. Oil-products can penetrate to a depth of 40 and more meters in a vertical direction. In surface water the recorded average oil-product concentration is 31,5 mg/dm3. In underground water depending on its type petroleum concentration reaches the limit of their solubility. Rather powerful spots of the lost oil-products are formed in the parts of the active underground water contamination. For example, at the former military air force facility kerosene spot formed at the level of underground water has reached 2,1 m. Scale and degree of territory contamination by oil is defined by climatic, orographic, geological and hydrogeological conditions and also by the type of the lost petroleum. Petroleum contamination of people residing places and of drinking water-intakes locations is of great danger. In such cases a complex of measures of localizing the contamination centers and purification of soil, bottom, underground and surface water contaminated by petroleum is worked out. As a rule, it includes technical and biological soil and bottom recultivation, contaminated underground water pumping out and utilization, the construction of geomigrative screens, petroleum collection from an open water surface of rivers and reservoirs and its utilization. Practical works on contaminated soil recultivation are implemented by local organizations on whose territory petroleum contamination spots are discovered.
Vasilchenko G., Drutskaya V., Kapelko L.
Solution of Ecological-Engineering Problems on the Basis of River Stream Modelling. pp. 53--58
Summary: Some results of Waters tream Regulation laboratory participation in the environmental regulation of engineeringeconomic activities on the rivers concerning its impact on the riverbed processes, i. e. current and sediment regimes, river-bed-flood plain deformations. Laboratory o work consisted of: modelling of river process components applied to pre-project and project conditions, assessment of environmentally permissible project activities, elaboration of recommendations on their improvement. Following data are giver on applied mathematical models and examples of their use in projects on improvement of navigation conditions on the Nizhnaya Pripyat (the toron of Narovlya - the Kiev reservoir); hydroecological sanitation and improvement of the Dnieper areas (regions of the towns of Rechitsa and Zhlobin), and on the solution of arguments on irrevocable extraction of sand-gravel mixtures in the river beds during river-bed regulations, etc.
Rutkovsky P. P.
The Problem of Inundation in the Republic of Belarus and the Ways of its Solution. pp. 59--63
Summary: The conditions of flood forming on the territory of the Republic of Belarus are considered from the point of view of river basins. Their physical and hydrological parameters are presented. The frequency analysis of flood and stand of water on the floodplain shows that practically for all main rivers of the Republic of Belarus except for the Western Dvina annual inundation of floodplain during high water period is observed. Continuous increase of economic activities on flood plain territory due to melioration measures, development of urban areas, transport and communication infrastructure and etc, contribute to the growth of average annual long-term consequences from floods. The calculated data on damages are given in a summarized form. Based on the analysis of existing protection systems a conclusion is made of their efficiency. The possibilities of using different methods of protection are considered. To improve the use of floodplain territories it is recommended to apply both traditional engineering methods of protection and non-engineering such as regulation of floodplain territories exposed to encroaching by floodwater.
Taratunin A.
Modern Strategy of Protection and Decrease of Damage From Flooding in the Republic of Belarus. pp. 64--69
Summary: In the article the reasons of damage increase from flooding in the world and in particular in the Republic of Belarus are considered. On the basis of international and national experience the author proposes to take as a basis of flood protection strategy and for reduction of damages from flooding non-engineering methods. These methods should be based on the development and acceptance of legislative and normative statements which regulate economic activities on the flooded territories, development and acceptance of the State System of Insurance.
Cherepansky M. M., Sytnik E. V., Zlebova A. J.
Estimation of Economic Use Possibility of Zones Under City Intakes Influence. pp. 70--80
Summary: Investigation of the ground water quality in city intakes of Minsk for the whole period of regime observations (1960-2000) has shown that each water intake is characterized by water quality change with time and this may be regarded as an indication of pollution. Increase of pollution by such substances as chlorides, sulfates, nitrates is connected with intense anthropogenic impact on the territory of the city. Ground waters are protected from pollution by intake zones of sanitary protection (ZSP). Decisions of city authorities concerning new construction sites on the territory of ZSP must be based on the results of estimation of ground waters protecting ability of the exploited aquifer. Estimation of protecting ability is carried out by a numerical method using Multifunctional System of ground water flow modeling and assessment of intake impact on the environment. This System is worked out in CRIIUWR.
In MAS-2000 system the modelling process can be carried out both on regional and local models at the required level of detailed information taking into account the following: confined and non-confined flow regime of ground water; convective mass transport of chemically non-active contaminants in ground water; percolation through hydrogeological "windows"; percolation through separating layers with low permeability both in case of steady filtration regime and with regard to their capacity qualities; in filtration, evaporation and their change depending on the depth of subsurface water level; interrelation of surface and ground waters with regard to their levels separation and linking up; regime of surface water streams and reservoirs (floods, lowest water level, river drying up, etc.); time dynamics of hydrological net of the examined territory. Input data are the geometry of filtration field under research and border conditions, hydrogeological and hydrochemical parameters of calculated horizons, information on the sources of pollution, ground water abstraction, etc. Output data are special maps, tables and graphs, describing the impact of ground water abstraction on hydrogeological condition of the adjacent territory and enabling to assess the anthropogenic activity impact on the resources and quality of ground water, to develop to assess their efficiency, etc. For the solution of this problem (conservation of drinking water quality) a special map-scheme of hydroecological zoning of the territory according to the possibility of its functional use has been made. Regulations of use are based on the estimate of ground waters protection of exploited aquifer from pollution.
Usenko V. S.
Spreadinq of Oil Products in Sites of Its Leakaqes. pp. 81--91
Summary: At present great attention is paid in the Republic of Belarus to land and groundwater protection from pollution by oil products. Theoretical assessment of this processes is very difficult because oil products can migrate in the ground in different forms: flowing as lenses in pure form, in suspended or evaporated state or diffusing into atmosphere. In the article this task is considered in general sense. New differential equations of groundwater filtration and oil products lens flowing in two-dimensions for flat-parallel and asymmetrical flows were acquired. Solving the problems by such equations with analytical methods is very difficult due to their non-linearity. These equations are to be solved by numeric methods. For the approximate assessment and prediction of groundwater and land contamination a list of solutions acquired by different methods known from literature is submitted.
Smirnov A. V.
Main Sorption-Dispersion Parameters of Pollutant Migration in Soils and Methods of Their Determination. pp. 92--99
Summary: The main methods of determination of sorption-dispersion parameters of pollutant migration in soils are described. They are active nа and efficient nэ porosity, the coefficient of distribution b and the coefficient of distribution D. The experiments were carried out in "dynamic" conditions to determine these parameters for sandy and sandy loam turf-podzol soils with filtration of solutions containing cations of caesium and strontium in different concentrations. The analysis of concentration C dependence of caesium, strontium and main soil elements (sodium, potassium, calcium and magnesium) on the volume of filtrate V, penetrated through the soil layers of different thickness, shows the prevailing role of exchange reactions in the process of sorption in comparison with the physical sorption. In this case strontium sorption takes place mainly as a result of its replacing exchange by calcium and to a less degree of exchange by magnesium, potassium and sodium. At caesium solution filtration the main element entering the exchange reactions is potassium and to a less degree sodium, calcium and magnesium. Values of main sorption-dispersion parameters of sandy and sandy loam soils for initial concentration of caesium in filtrating solutions from 0,02 to 20 mg/l and strontium - from 0,05 to 100 mg/l are calculated with the help of the method of output characteristics linearization C (V). It has been found that the decrease of caesium concentration in the above mentioned interval in the solution by one order leads to the increase of efficient porosity nэ, (to reduction of distribution coefficient b) for sandy and loam soil 1,9...2,6 times, for sandy soil - 2,5...4,5 times and the diffusion coefficients D decrease at the same time for sandy loam - 2,5...3 times, for sandy soil - 3,5...10 times. Similarly, the reduction of strontium by one order in the filtration solution leads to the increase of nэ (reduction of b) for sandy loam soil in 2,5...3 times, for sandy soil - 3...3,5 times and the diffusion coefficients are reduced accordingly 8...10 times and 5,5...10 times.
Volkov V. E.
Water Resources Protection in Mining Areas of The Republic of Belarus. pp. 100--104
Summary: Main hydroecologically dangerous forms of the environment geological changes are given in the article that are caused by the influence of intensive working out of deposits with aquifer thickness of solid fossil. For the reduction of negative influence of mining on the surface and underground waters a system of water resources protection is suggested in the form of a principal scheme of water protection measures. It is implemented in the projects of exploitation of large-scale deposits with complicated and very complicated hydrogeological conditions. An important environmental protection measure and element of resource conservation is solution of the problem of quarry waters use for water protection and practical purposes. The scheme of water protection measures developed in CRIFCDWR was used for projecting the exploitation of a series of large-scale deposites of construction materials in the republic which had complicated geological conditions. Among them clay-sand mix deposit "Minskoye" and concrete sand and chalk "Khotislavskoye" that are situated near important water protection objects.
Alferovich A. N.
Hydropower Resources of Rivers in Belarus and Possibilities of Their Use. pp. 105--111
Summary: The paper considers methods and results of revealing favorable river sections for the construction of small hydro plants (with the capacity from 100 to 30 000 kilowatt) with storage reservoirs in the Dnieper, West Dvina and Neman basins. Topographical and hydrological conditions and a number of limitations for achievement of ecological acceptability of reservoir placing are considered. Results have been obtained which indicate that capital investments for the storage reservoir creation make up the main contribution to the value of small hydro plant construction. The degree of ecological acceptability of hydro plants are estimated by the ratios A/N and Al/N, where A is area of land submergence by storage reservoir, N is the proposed capacity of the hydro plant and Al is the area of shallow part of the reservoir. The economic effect of the capital investment for the hydro plant construction can be estimated by the ratio C/(Pt - E), where C is total capital investments, Pt is the average annual income from the sale of electricity generated by the hydro plant (t is tariff of this electricity) and E is annual operation expenses.
Goncharov V. V., Oborotova R. I., Konopelko L. G., Bulatova A. A., Ladeishchikova L. S., Pakhomov A. V.
Automation of Environmental Assessment of Waste Water Treatment Systems Projects. pp. 112--117
Summary: The environmental assessment of waste water treatment system projects should prognosticate or assess the efficiency of projected treatment systems substantiated by the criterion base of assessment including the regulations. The other objective is to directly reveal whether the projected object corresponds to the standard construction regulations or other norms. Thus automation means in this case the development of a program set and a database on treatment technologies, including determination of criteria on outflow composition, methods of its treatment, on the composition of separate elements of treatment and on this basis - compiling general flowcharts for the enterprises of meat and milk processing industry, textile, oil producing/refining, tanning, pulp/paper, machine building industries. Carried out analysis enabled to develop the conditions which are common for all industries (removal of suspended substances and reduction of organic compounds) and which were taken into account when the general flowcharts were developed. At this stage pollution is reduced up to 50 %, the rest contaminants are specific and they are removed by more complex methods. The general flowcharts show not only the succession of treatment stages, but also the norms of pollution concentration in control sections. The observance of these norms guarantees stability of work in the whole technological line. In this case expert assessment of project documents of waste water treatment systems singles out the control sections in project schemes identical to control sections in general flowcharts and carries out the comparative analysis of data in these sections. Identification is carried out not on the composition of elements (which are as a rule different), but on the value of concentrations in the control sections, including the places of change of one treatment cycle to another, e. g. Mechanical to biological or physicochemical. The examples of general flow chart for meat/milk processing industry and the order of adjusting the general flow chart on the project parameters at the treatment system entry are given.
The questionnaire analysis of 125 enterprises of the Republic of Belarus makes it possible to calculate the regressive dependence (for 13 most frequently met elements) between the treatment efficiency and element parameters which allow to assess the level of efficiency for the treatment systems under design in comparison with the existing ones.
Olodovski P. P., Belko N. T., Pozdnyakov V. K., Istomin Yu. P., Karpel O. V.
Role of "Flint" Water for Accelerating the Removal of Radioactive Isotopes From Biological Tissue. pp. 118--121
Summary: In this paper the results of the experimental investigations connected with study of the flint water influence on the processes of the accumulating and removing of Sr-89 from the white rat's organism, also the evidence of theoretical investigations connected with the explanation of the increasing of flint water molecules bond energy with the strontium ion are presented. It was founded that the white rats which used common water with the primary level of the pollution of 0,5 micro Ci/l have accumulated Sr-89 in their organisms twice and half as many as the same ones which used flint water with the same level of the pollution. It is shown that Sr-89 after it had been introduced into the vein of the rat is removed from the rat's organism faster in the case when the rat drank flint water than in the case when the one drank common water. Increasing of strontium ions bond energy with the molecules of the flint water and decreasing of strontium diffusion coefficient in the texture tissue account for this effect. It was founded that in the texture flour the diffusion coefficient of strontium, dissolved in the flint water with the concentration about zero, was in three times less and the coefficient of the strontium distribution was in 1,6 times less than the same parameters of the migration of strontium dissolved in common water; the flint water molecule bond energy with the strontium ion is more in 12 times.
Tomina N. M., Kotsur J. P.
Hydroecologic Problems of Snow Piles Location in Cities. pp. 122--126
Summary: The placing of snow taken away from roadways is a difficult problem for all large cities. It is connected with economical, urbanistical and ecological factors.
In winter roadways are covered by sand and salt mixtures against ice formation. When snow melts chlorides contaminate surface and ground water. In this way, soil and water get polluted by chlorides and byproducts of transport, i. e. oil-products, heavy metals and other substances. In Minsk as well as in other cities of Republic the location of snow piles is chosen every year depending on urbanistical and sanitary and hygienic conditions. Standard documentation regulating the location of snow piles is absent. In Minsk almost all local snow storages are situated in water protection zones of rivers or in zones of sanitary protection of drinking water intakes. At present snow thawing in the places of its storage takes place naturally and thawed flow is filtered into the ground waters. This is the reason of formation of environmental pollution. On the basis of investigations and using foreign experience on compulsory snow thawing, ecological criteria of snow storage locations are elaborated and engineering constructions are designed which prevent from pollution surface and ground waters.
Stankevich A., Korneyev V., Chekan G.
Mathematical Model of Floodings in the Pripyat River Basin. pp. 127--134
Summary: In the article methods of mathematical modeling of flood wave movement in rivers are considered. The conclusions are formulated about the tendencies of the present state development of flooding mathematical models in rivers. The features of flooding in the Pripyat river basin in case of flood outlet into plains are analyzed. The equations of unsteady flow in river systems are presented. Mathematical modeling of unsteady motion of water in the Pripyat river basin was developed based on hydrological data of 1998. The statistical inaccuracy of mathematical modeling of water level regime in the Pripyat river basin for all points of observation subordinate to the State Committee of Hydrology did not exceed 0,12 ± 0,04 m. Thus, the average value of absolute inaccuracy for levels modeling did not exceed 0,16 m taking into account statistical aspect. A conclusion about the possibilities of use of the developed mathematical model of flooding for the Pripyat river basin for on-line forecasting of floodings is made.